Exports are the driving force behind the growth of China’s processing industry

China's manufacturing sector remains the primary driver of domestic steel demand growth, largely due to strong export figures. According to Eurometal, citing data from S&P Global Energy CERA, steel consumption in the manufacturing sector is projected to grow by 3.3% year-on-year this year.

According to the analytical agency S&P Global Energy CERA, demand for steel from the manufacturing sector — including mechanical engineering, automotive manufacturing, household appliance production, the energy sector and shipbuilding — is forecast to reach 344 million tonnes in 2026. This represents a 3.3% year-on-year increase on last year’s figure, following growth of 4.7% year-on-year in 2025.

CERA analysts note that the manufacturing sector’s share of total structured steel consumption in China will rise to 52% in 2026, compared with 46% in 2023. This underscores the sector’s key role in shaping the country’s domestic steel market.

China will take measures to address overcapacity in heavy industries such as steel and oil refining. The National Development and Reform Commission has also announced capacity controls for the copper smelting, alumina, and coal chemical industries.

The current five-year plan also sets a target of reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 3.8% this year. In the next five years, a mandatory minimum consumption quota system for renewable energy will also be implemented.